Poland’s construction market splitting into several speeds

This article is a part of Poland Unpacked. Weekly intelligence for decision-makers

More than 1,600 housing projects currently on hold could suggest a sharp slowdown in the market. Data from Kompas Inwestycji, however, point to a far more nuanced picture. Over the past 12 months, more housing projects were launched than put on hold.

The scale of project suspensions is considerably greater in the warehouse and office sectors. Public investment tells an entirely different story, with the number of new projects on the rise.

Housing is slowing, but new projects still outnumber suspensions

From August 2025 to July 2026, 936 housing projects were put on hold. At the same time, 1,219 projects moved to the construction-ready stage or into execution. That means roughly 77 projects were suspended for every 100 projects launched.

The slowdown is also confirmed by data on current construction activity. Over the 12-month period, the real value of construction and assembly output in residential construction fell by about 4 percent. After rising toward the end of last year, the first half of 2026 brought a downward trend.

The picture is somewhat different at the earlier stages of the investment process.

“What's most interesting today is what is happening before construction begins. The number of private housing projects moving into execution has remained almost unchanged, but at the same time we are seeing a slight increase in activity at the planning and design stage,” says Andrzej Kaczmarek, a construction-market analyst at the Kompas Inwestycji platform.

The activity of public-sector investors also matters, as does the large number of projects that already have the required administrative approvals.

In the second quarter, the number of housing units for which construction permits had been issued or a construction notification with a project had been filed stood at around 76,000. That was one of the highest quarterly figures in recent years.

“Also worth noting is that the number of new public housing projects being launched has increased by several dozen percent. Combined with the number of permits being issued, this is clearly creating a pipeline of investments for the years ahead. What will therefore matter is the extent to which the projects being prepared actually move into execution,” Andrzej Kaczmarek adds.

The gap between preparing an investment and actually starting construction will be crucial in the coming quarters. A large number of permits does not automatically mean that projects will quickly make it onto construction sites.

Łódź and Poznań see more projects put on hold than launched

The national average also masks significant differences between regions. In some locations, the scale of project suspensions is considerably greater.

The sharpest slowdown is currently visible in Łódź Voivodeship in central Poland. The ratio of suspended projects to newly launched ones has reached 120 percent. In other words, more projects are being put on the shelf than are moving into execution.

A similar situation can be seen in Greater Poland in the west part of the country, where the ratio is approaching 110 percent. This is significant because the region was previously one of Poland’s more active housing markets.

Differences are also apparent in the largest cities. In Łódź, Kompas monitors 83 active projects and 79 projects that have been put on hold. In Poznań, 71 projects remain under development, while 74 are frozen.

In Silesia in south-western Poland, the number of suspended projects remains broadly in line with the number of new launches. In Katowice alone, 38 projects are under development, while 33 have been put on hold or abandoned.

Cooling is also visible in Poland’s largest market. The number of new project launches is declining in Mazovia in central Poland. In Warsaw, the Kompas database includes 114 frozen projects and 72 under development.

A significantly lower ratio of suspended projects has been recorded in Opole Voivodeship in the south of the country. The figure should nevertheless be treated with caution: the entire database there covers only slightly more than 100 housing projects.

Developers are not pulling back from new projects

Data on developer activity show that the large number of projects being put on hold has so far not translated into a clear decline in the number of homes under construction. According to data from Statistics Poland (GUS), cited by the Polish Association of Real Estate Developers, companies started construction of 81,169 housing units between January and July 2026. That was 1.2 percent more than in the same period a year earlier.

In July alone, developers started construction of 11,547 homes. Monthly figures have also remained unusually stable since May, ranging from roughly 11,500 to 11,900 units under construction.

“Despite the continued high level of available housing stock, developers are still willing to pursue new projects, which should support price stability. That said, the situation varies significantly depending on the location of the market,” says Patryk Kozierkiewicz, legal counsel at the Polish Association of Real Estate Developers.

An even stronger signal comes from data on the preparation of new projects. During the first seven months of the year, developers obtained permits to build 113,736 homes. That represents an increase of more than 20 percent compared with the same period in 2025.

This is creating a sizable pipeline of projects that could be launched in the coming quarters. That does not mean, however, that all of them will quickly reach the market or move into construction. With supply still high, developers may adjust the timing of subsequent phases to demand conditions in specific local markets.

Data on completed construction also remain stable. By the end of July, developers had completed 69,487 homes, 0.8 percent more than a year earlier. The sector therefore appears to be heading toward cautious stabilization rather than a sharp pullback in investment activity.

Warehouses and offices are slowing much more sharply

The large number of projects being put on hold is not limited to housing. Even more pronounced changes are visible in some industrial and commercial segments.

Kompas’ database contains nearly 1,400 manufacturing projects. Around 33.6 percent are currently on hold, while 20.6 percent are under development.

Over the past 12 months, 228 manufacturing projects were suspended. At the same time, 316 projects moved to the construction-ready stage or into execution. The suspension rate was therefore more than 72 percent.

The figures are even weaker for warehouses. There were 219 suspended projects compared with 193 launched ones. Their declared values were approximately PLN 18.7 billion (EUR 4.4 billion) and PLN 10.4 billion (EUR 2.4 billion), respectively.

Among the largest projects put on hold was the expansion of VidaXL’s logistics center, valued at around PLN 1 billion (EUR 235 million).

The large number of projects being suspended comes after several years of exceptionally rapid growth in the warehouse market. The current situation may therefore partly reflect a normalization after a period of unusually dynamic expansion.

The supply of warehouse space is beginning to flatten out. At the same time, demand for new space is once again becoming visible in the leasing market.

New leases account for 42 percent of demand, while renegotiations account for 35 percent. This matters for future investment, as new contracts can create demand for additional facilities.

At the same time, the number of speculative projects launched without tenants secured in advance is declining.

Nearly two office projects are put on hold for every new one

The sharpest slowdown among the segments analyzed is visible in office construction.

The number of new projects has been falling almost continuously since 2017. Over the past 12 months, 84 office projects were put on hold. Just 43 moved to the construction-ready stage or into execution.

The suspension rate therefore reached 195 percent. For every project launched, nearly two were put on hold.

The picture is more balanced in hotels and other accommodation facilities. Kompas recorded 139 new projects against 133 suspensions.

Here, however, the limitations of an analysis based solely on project value are particularly apparent. The figures are affected by the planned redevelopment of the Modlin Fortress, with a declared value of PLN 3.9 billion (EUR 920 million).

The retail and services sector is moving in a different direction. After a sharp decline in activity during the pandemic, the number of projects being launched has been gradually increasing.

One reason is a change in the market structure. Smaller retail parks are becoming increasingly important, including in towns outside the largest metropolitan areas.

Existing properties are also changing. Large shopping centers are being redeveloped, while some former hypermarkets are being given new uses.

The state is building more. Schools and hospitals defy the trend

Public-sector investment paints an entirely different picture. Here, the number of new projects being launched clearly exceeds the scale of suspensions.

In public administration, the number of projects being launched has increased by around 140 percent since 2017. Over the past 12 months, 190 projects were launched, while just 13 were put on hold.

That translates into a suspension rate of just 7 percent – the lowest among the segments analyzed by Kompas.

Similar trends are visible in education. From August 2025 to July 2026, 404 projects moved to the construction-ready stage or into execution. Just 50 projects were suspended.

Activity is also increasing in health care. In the latest period analyzed, the number of new projects exceeded 200. The ratio of suspended projects to new ones fell to around 13 percent.

The data therefore point to a widening divergence between different parts of the market. Segments that depend primarily on private capital are showing greater caution. Public investment, by contrast, remains one of the engines of construction activity.

One major project can distort an entire region’s picture

The data on project values require an even more cautious interpretation. A single multibillion-zloty project can completely reshape a region’s statistics.

Pomerania is the clearest example. The figures for the latest period were significantly boosted by the Baltica 2 and Baltica 3 offshore wind farms. Their combined declared value is PLN 44 billion (EUR 10.4 billion).

The projects account for nearly 58 percent of the value of the 25 largest launches included in the Kompas ranking.

The same mechanism works in reverse. The value of suspended projects in Łódź Voivodeship is heavily influenced by the Łódź Railway Hub. The project is valued at around PLN 1.59 billion (EUR 375 million).

In Greater Poland (Wielkopolska, west of the country), warehouse projects feature prominently among the largest investments that have been put on hold.

Poland’s construction sector therefore cannot be reduced to the headline figure of more than 1,600 frozen housing projects. A high number of suspensions does not necessarily mean the entire market has ground to a halt.

Likewise, a high value of new projects does not necessarily signal a broad-based recovery. Sometimes it is driven by a single enormous project. A fuller picture emerges only when the number of investments, their value, status and the structure of individual sectors are considered together.

For now, the strongest signs of a slowdown are coming from offices and warehouses. Housing has also cooled, particularly in some regions. More projects are still moving into execution than being put on hold.

At the same time, the number of projects being prepared and those that already have permits is increasing. The key question, therefore, is how much of this pipeline will actually make it onto construction sites.

There is no single crisis engulfing Poland’s entire construction sector. The data point above all to growing divergence between segments. Offices and warehouses are clearly slowing, while public administration, education and health care are increasing the number of new investments.
The biggest question mark for the housing market is the transition from planning to construction. The number of projects moving into execution remains relatively stable, while planning activity and the number of permits are high. It is unclear, however, how many of the projects in the pipeline will actually be launched.
The number of suspended projects alone can lead to misleading conclusions. Their number, value and structure all matter. A single megaproject can reshape the picture for an entire region, while a high number of suspensions does not necessarily mean an equally deep weakening of the sector as a whole.