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Romania 2040. How Can the Economy Converge to the EU’s Average Standard of Living? (XYZ Report)
Romania’s GDP per capita grew by nearly 40 percent between 2015 and 2024, reaching 78 percent of the EU average. But achieving full income convergence with the EU by 2040 will require consistent annual growth of around 3 percent. According to a new report, this path depends on both unlocking new growth drivers and strengthening the country’s economic fundamentals.
Discover in this report:
- Which sectors can drive Romania’s economic growth in the coming decades.
- What challenges Romania must overcome to sustain convergence with the EU.
- Why strong institutions and solid economic foundations are crucial for lasting development.
Over the past three decades, Romania has shifted from a post-socialist economy. It has become one of the fastest-growing members of the European Union. Between 2015 and 2024, GDP per capita grew by an average of 3.7 percent annually. It rose from 56 percent to 78 percent of the EU average. To fully catch up with Western Europe, however, the country must tap into new sources of competitiveness and resilience.
The report “Romania 2040: Unlocking New Drivers of Economic Development” identifies four key sectors. These sectors have the greatest potential to propel growth:
- Artificial intelligence and modern services – leveraging digitalization and high-skilled talent to move up the value chain.
- Industrial expansion through nearshoring and friendshoring – attracting new manufacturing investments as supply chains diversify.
- Agriculture and food processing – raising productivity in a sector where Romania holds strong natural advantages.
- Tourism and the experience economy – unlocking underutilized cultural and natural assets to boost revenues.
Growth engines alone will not be sufficient. The study highlights the importance of strong institutions, sound fiscal policy, and modern infrastructure. It also points to the need for a deeper capital market and an innovation ecosystem that encourages entrepreneurship. Only by combining these fundamentals with sector-specific opportunities can Romania ensure sustained progress. This is the path to closing the income gap with the EU by 2040.
Download the full report:
"Romania 2040. Unlocking New Drivers of Economic Development"
The report offers a forward-looking roadmap for Romania’s economic transformation. It not only identifies where new opportunities lie, but also outlines the policy choices and institutional reforms needed to seize them. By combining strategic investment in growth sectors with decisive action to strengthen fundamentals, Romania has the chance to position itself among Europe’s most dynamic economies by 2040.
Download - Język: EN
- Format: PDF
- Rozmiar: 8.14 MB
Key Takeaways
- Romania must unlock new growth engines — including artificial intelligence, business services, industry, agriculture, and tourism — to converge with the EU’s standard of living.
- Agriculture and tourism remain underdeveloped sectors, but both offer significant opportunities to boost productivity and strengthen international competitiveness.
- Sustainable growth, however, will depend not only on new growth drivers but also on stronger institutions, sound economic policy, modern infrastructure, greater innovation, and deeper capital markets.
